🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."