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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.