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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still